Some of what we "know" about managing projects just isn't so. Identifying the fallacies of project management reduces risk and enhances your ability to complete projects successfully.
an picked up the last chunk of cookie and ate it. Peter and Trish had long ago finished theirs, but Nan liked making cookies last. "The critical thinking fallacies were my favorites," she said. "I like learning how to think more clearly."
A white shark off the California coast. Photo courtesy US NOAA.
Peter sipped his coffee. "Mmm." He swallowed. "But how do we avoid those fallacies?"
Nan had an idea. "Maybe we should inspect our project plans, like we inspect components."
Trish was intrigued. "Yeah, and I know what I'd put at the top of the checklist."
"OK, I'll bite," said Peter. "What?"
Trish was ready. "The Nine Project Management Fallacies."
Not a bad idea. These last three fallacies (Part IV of a little catalog of the fallacies of project management) are errors of critical thinking. For Part III, see "Nine Project Management Fallacies: Part III," Point Lookout for December 28, 2005.
Non-random polling might provide comfort, but it's hardly scientific
The Normative Fallacy
This fallacy holds that when we ask some people their opinions, and most of them agree, then they're correct. Usually we select people non-randomly, choosing those who will give us desirable answers, or those we can trust, or those of high rank.
Non-random polling might provide comfort, but it's hardly scientific, and it almost always leads to biased conclusions.
To get truly useful polling data, you must poll people randomly.
The Availability Heuristic
In risk management, we often estimate the probabilities of certain events. We're using the Availability Heuristic[*] when we estimate these probabilities by sensing the difficulty of imagining or understanding the string of events that lead to the risk.
For instance, when we ask people whether death resulting from being attacked by a shark is more or less likely than from being hit by falling airplane parts, they usually answer that death by shark attack is more likely. Actually, death from being hit by falling airplane parts is 30 times more likely, but people are fooled because it's easier to imagine shark attacks, which are more common.
Estimating probabilities is unlikely to produce reliable results. Use real data, or use huge error bars.
The Grandiosity Fallacy
Confronting a problem, we sometimes address a generalization of the problem instead, hoping to solve a host of similar problems, and thereby solving the original problem almost "for free." Rarely does the reality match the wish.
Grandiosity usually generates two kinds of trouble. First, it's often more expensive and time-consuming than originally estimated. Second, the people of the organization rarely want the general solution. If they did, they probably would have sought it in the first place.
Sometimes customers don't know the value of the general solution, and telling them about it might produce a better outcome. But usually they want only what they asked for. Work with them on that first.
Track the incidence of these nine fallacies in your organization. Use them to inspect project plans. Probably your projects will have fewer surprises, or at least you'll be just a little less likely to be hit by falling airplane parts. TopNext Issue
[*]
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology 5, 207-232, (1973).
Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!
Since companies sometimes tackle projects that they have no hope of completing successfully, your project might be completely wrong for your company. How can you tell whether your project is a fit for your company?
A toxic project is one that harms its organization, its people or its customers. We often think of toxic projects as projects that fail, but even a "successful" project can hurt people or damage the organization — sometimes irreparably.
When we schedule a complex project, we balance logical order, resource constraints, and even politics. Here are some techniques for using scheduling to manage risk and reduce costs.
Historically, military logistics practice has provided a steady stream of innovations to many fields, including project management. But project managers can learn even more if we investigate battlefield tactics.
In emergencies, group problem solving is unusually challenging, especially if lives, careers or companies depend on finding a solution immediately. Here are some tips for members of teams that are solving problems in emergencies.
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What do you do when your team can't make critical decisions? Or worse, when they make a decision, what do you do when they open it up again next week? Making good decisions and facilitating group decisions are both critical skills for project managers. In this revealing and interactive program, I demonstrate a model of decision-making that captures the internal conflicts we all feel when we make difficult decisions. With a better understanding of how we resolve conflicting priorities, we not only become more skilled at making decisions, but we learn how to make decisions that "stick." Read more about this program. Here's an upcoming date for this program:
The Politics of Meetings for People Who Hate Politics
There's a lot more to running an effective meeting than having the right room, the right equipment, and the right people. With meetings, the whole really is more than the sum of its parts. How the parts interact with each other and with external elements is as important as the parts themselves. And those interactions are the essence of politics for meetings. This program explores techniques for leading meetings that are based on understanding political interactions, and using that knowledge effectively to meet organizational goals. Read more about this program. Here's an upcoming date for this program:
Person-to-Person Communication for Project Managers
When we talk, listen, send or read emails, read or write memos, or when we leave or listen to voice mail messages, we're communicating person-to-person. And whenever we communicate person-to-person, we risk being misunderstood, offending others, feeling hurt, and being confused. There are so many ways for things to go wrong that we could never learn how to fix all the problems. A more effective approach avoids problems altogether, or at least minimizes their occurrence. In this very interactive program you'll learn a model of inter-personal communications that can help you stay out of the ditch. In those moments of intense involvement, when we're most likely to slip, you'll have a new tool to use to keep things constructive. Read more about this program. Here are some upcoming dates for this program:
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an picked up the last chunk of cookie and ate it. Peter and Trish had long ago finished theirs, but Nan liked making cookies last. "The critical thinking fallacies were my favorites," she said. "I like learning how to think more clearly."
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Next IssueAre your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!
Geese Don't Land on Twigs
Toxic Projects
Scheduling as Risk Management
Flanking Maneuvers
Emergency Problem Solving
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Ever wonder if there isn't a better way to travel? Travel is essential, but the hassles of travel aren't. Read 202 Tips for Business Travel to learn how to convert business travel from a time-wasting hassle to a breeze. Revised and updated for 2008 with 101 new tips! Check it out!
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Are you doing work you love? Are you less in love with the job? Bad boss, long commute, troubling ethical questions, hateful colleague? Read Go For It! Sometimes It's Easier If You Run to learn what we can do when we love the work but not the job. It helps you get moving again!
Are you fed up with tense, explosive meetings? Are you or a colleague targets of a bully? Read 101 Tips for Managing Conflict to learn how to make peace with conflict. Check it out!
Are you managing a change effort that faces rampant cynicism, passive non-cooperation, or maybe even outright revolt? Read 101 Tips for Managing Change to learn how to plan and execute your change efforts to inspire real, passionate support. Check it out!
A Tip a Day arrives by email each business day. It's 20 to 30 words at most, and gives you a new perspective on the hassles and rewards of work life. Most tips also contain links to related articles. Free!
Do you ever wonder if all these meetings are really necessary? (They aren't) Or whether there isn't some better way to get this work done? (There is) Read 101 Tips for Effective Meetings to learn how to make meetings more productive — and more rare. Check it out!
