I've Got Your Number, Pal

In tense exchanges between rivals, anger sometimes comes from the belief that the other is lying. Accusations of lying then further inflame the exchange, and we're off to the races. This is a fascinating starting point for such flaming, because lying is an especially difficult behavior to detect. Proof of lying requires evidence about the state of knowledge and intentions of the supposed liar, which can be difficult to obtain.

Although some experts claim to be able to detect lies by observing involuntary expressions and gestures, most of those making everyday accusations of lying have no such expertise. Usually, they do have faith in their level of insight into the mind of the supposed liar, but faith is not evidence.

The pattern of questionable assessments like these is so widespread that researchers have given it a name: the asymmetric insight illusion. This illusion has two fundamental elements:

• We think we know others better than others know them
• We think we know ourselves better than others know themselves

Following from these two fundamental beliefs are two more:

• We think we know others better than others know us
• We think we know ourselves better than others know us

Since this set of beliefs is usually an illusion, we're usually unaware that we have insufficient data to justify them.

Based on this illusion, we sometimes believe that someone is lying even when we can't possibly know that for certain. Here are three other ways to get into trouble:

Inflicting feedback

Sometimes we experience urges to give unsolicited advice or feedback. We might even neglect to ask for permission to provide it. See "Feedback Fumbles," Point Lookout for April 2, 2003, for more.

These urges can come, in part, from the illusion that we understand the other's experience, perceptions, and defects. Use the urge as a reminder to check for the illusion.

Resisting feedback

When people giveWe sometimes believe that
someone is lying even when
we can't possibly know
that for certain feedback or advice, requested or not, the asymmetric insight illusion can convince us that the givers can't possibly know what they're talking about.

Unfortunately for recipients, sometimes the givers do know what they're talking about. The urge to dismiss feedback might rest on the illusion that you know yourself better than anyone else possibly could.

Intergroup antagonism

Intergroup antagonism can prevent members of the respective groups from working together. They can all believe that the other group's members are mean-spirited, malicious, or worse.

In large groups, when most members don't know each other well, they can nevertheless be certain about the other group's shortcomings. Such stereotypes suggest the workings of the asymmetric insight illusion.

There's a trap here awaiting all of us. The very strong sense that someone is doing or saying something that's consistent with being misled by the asymmetric insight illusion, could itself be the result of the asymmetric insight illusion.  Top    Next Issue

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For more about the asymmetric insight illusion, see: Emily Pronin, Justin Kruger, Kenneth Savitsky and Lee Ross: "You Don't Know Me, But I Know You: The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2001, Vol. 81, No. 4, 639-656.

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A cognitive bias known as the Overconfidence Effect causes us to overestimate the reliability of our judgments. Decisions we make based on those judgments are therefore suspect. But there are steps we can take to make our confidence levels more realistic, and thus make our decisions more reliable. Available here and by RSS on May 14.

And on May 21: Mismanaging Project Managers

Most organizations hold project managers accountable for project performance. But they don't grant those project managers control of needed resources. Nor do they hold project sponsors or other senior managers accountable for the consequences of their actions when they interfere with project work. Here's a catalog of behaviors worth looking at. Available here and by RSS on May 21.

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