In the first part of this series, we examined strategies for making good guesses — overall approaches that lead to excellent conjectures. Let's now turn to tactics for making good guesses based on what you see — and what you don't.
- Look for what's not there
- Many guesses involve recognizing the absence of something important. Some missing factors are obvious, such as gaps in a sequence, or something missing that's usually implied by something that's present. See "On Noticing," Point Lookout for May 2, 2012, for more.
- Other missing items are more difficult to notice. For instance, consider two factors present in the situation before you. Then ask, if these two are connected in some way, what would that connecting feature imply? That implied attribute of the situation might be missing. If it is, what does that tell you? See "On Noticing," Point Lookout for May 2, 2012, for more.
- Examine temporal sequences
- A temporal sequence is a sequence in which time of occurrence determines position in the sequence. Since time of occurrence is often confused with time of discovery or time of recognition, the first thing to sort out is temporal order.
- Once you know the order, you can reverse it, and consider whether the reversed sequence is actually possible. If the reversed sequence or any subset of it could have happened in that order, it's possible that the order you believe you have is actually incorrect. What if it is? What does that tell you?
- For people, focus on situation, not character
- When most of us conjecture what others will do in a given situation, we tend to put too much weight on their character or motivation, and too little weight on how they experience that situation. This error is so common that it has a name: the Fundamental Attribution Error.
- Since disregarding Many guesses involve
recognizing the absence
of something importantcharacter or motivation is also an error, keep it in the mix. But think much more about how the situation looks to the people in question. What will they know? What will they not know? How will their past experiences influence what they notice or don't notice? What are others hiding? What disinformation is present? Focus on trying to see things from their vantage point, and then project the decisions they're likely to make based on the information they have.
Most important, watch others. You probably know someone who makes consistently good guesses. Actually, you probably know more such people than you imagine you do. Many great guessers conceal from others — and sometimes themselves — that they're guessing. They present a demeanor of knowledge and confidence designed to conceal their guessing.
When someone appears to "know" something you think they might not actually know, make a note of it. Later, imagine how you would have made that guess. This exercise, repeated over time, gives you a chance to build your guessing skills. First in this series Top Next Issue
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Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
- Coming October 23: Power Distance and Teams
- One of the attributes of team cultures is something called power distance, which is a measure of the overall comfort people have with inequality in the distribution of power. Power distance can determine how well a team performs when executing high-risk projects. Available here and by RSS on October 23.
- And on October 30: Power Distance and Risk
- Managing or responding to project risks is much easier when team culture encourages people to report problems and question any plans they have reason to doubt. Here are five examples that show how such encouragement helps to manage risk. Available here and by RSS on October 30.
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- The Race to the South Pole: Lessons in Leadership
On 14 December 1911, four men led by Roald Amundsen reached the South Pole. Thirty-five days later, Robert F. Scott and four others followed. Amundsen had won the race to the pole. Amundsen's party returned to base on 26 January 1912. Scott's party perished. As historical drama, why this happened is interesting enough. But to organizational leaders, business analysts, project sponsors, and project managers, the story is fascinating. We'll use the history of this event to explore lessons in leadership and its application to organizational efforts. A fascinating and refreshing look at leadership from the vantage point of history. Read more about this program.
Here's a date for this program:
- Baldwin-Wallace University, 275 Eastland Road, Berea, Ohio
44017: November 7,
Kerzner Lecture Series/International Project Management Day, sponsored by Baldwin Wallace University and the Northeast Ohio Chapter of the Project Management Institute.
- Baldwin-Wallace University, 275 Eastland Road, Berea, Ohio 44017: November 7, Kerzner Lecture Series/International Project Management Day, sponsored by Baldwin Wallace University and the Northeast Ohio Chapter of the Project Management Institute. Register now.
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Many people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.