How to Make Good Guesses: Tactics

In the first part of this series, we examined strategies for making good guesses — overall approaches that lead to excellent conjectures. Let's now turn to tactics for making good guesses based on what you see — and what you don't.

Look for what's not there

Many guesses involve recognizing the absence of something important. Some missing factors are obvious, such as gaps in a sequence, or something missing that's usually implied by something that's present. See "On Noticing," Point Lookout for May 2, 2012, for more.

Other missing items are more difficult to notice. For instance, consider two factors present in the situation before you. Then ask, if these two are connected in some way, what would that connecting feature imply? That implied attribute of the situation might be missing. If it is, what does that tell you? See "On Noticing," Point Lookout for May 2, 2012, for more.

Examine temporal sequences

A temporal sequence is a sequence in which time of occurrence determines position in the sequence. Since time of occurrence is often confused with time of discovery or time of recognition, the first thing to sort out is temporal order.

Once you know the order, you can reverse it, and consider whether the reversed sequence is actually possible. If the reversed sequence or any subset of it could have happened in that order, it's possible that the order you believe you have is actually incorrect. What if it is? What does that tell you?

For people, focus on situation, not character

When most of us conjecture what others will do in a given situation, we tend to put too much weight on their character or motivation, and too little weight on how they experience that situation. This error is so common that it has a name: the Fundamental Attribution Error.

Since disregarding Many guesses involve
recognizing the absence
of something importantcharacter or motivation is also an error, keep it in the mix. But think much more about how the situation looks to the people in question. What will they know? What will they not know? How will their past experiences influence what they notice or don't notice? What are others hiding? What disinformation is present? Focus on trying to see things from their vantage point, and then project the decisions they're likely to make based on the information they have.

Most important, watch others. You probably know someone who makes consistently good guesses. Actually, you probably know more such people than you imagine you do. Many great guessers conceal from others — and sometimes themselves — that they're guessing. They present a demeanor of knowledge and confidence designed to conceal their guessing.

When someone appears to "know" something you think they might not actually know, make a note of it. Later, imagine how you would have made that guess. This exercise, repeated over time, gives you a chance to build your guessing skills. First in this series   Top    Next Issue

Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!

Your comments are welcome

About Point Lookout

Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.

Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.

Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.

Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.

Related articles

More articles on Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness:

Own Your Space

Since we spend so much of our waking lives in our offices, it's surprising how few of us take control of our immediate surroundings. If you do — if you make your space uniquely yours — you'll feel better about the time you spend at work.

Excuses, Excuses

When a goal remains unaccomplished, we sometimes tell ourselves that we understand why. And sometimes we do. But at other times, we're just fooling ourselves.

Bottlenecks: I

Some people take on so much work that they become "bottlenecks." The people around them repeatedly find themselves stuck, awaiting responses or decisions. Why does this happen and what are the costs?

The Risks of Too Many Projects: II

Although taking on too many projects risks defocusing the organization, the problems just begin there. Here are three more ways over-commitment causes organizations to waste resources or lose opportunities.

How to Get Out of Firefighting Mode: II

We know we're in firefighting mode when a new urgent problem disrupts our work on another urgent problem, and the new problem makes it impossible to use the solution we thought we had for some third problem we were also working on. Here's Part II of a set of suggestions for getting out of firefighting mode.

See also Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Project Management for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

Coming September 30: Seven More Planning Pitfalls: II

Planning teams, like all teams, are susceptible to several patterns of interaction that can lead to counter-productive results. Three of these most relevant to planners are False Consensus, Groupthink, and Shared Information Bias. Available here and by RSS on September 30.

And on October 7: Seven More Planning Pitfalls: III

Planning teams, like all teams, are vulnerable to several patterns of interaction that can lead to counter-productive results. Two of these relevant to planners are a cognitive bias called the IKEA Effect, and a systemic bias against realistic estimates of cost and schedule. Available here and by RSS on October 7.

Coaching services

I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenmhXARWRMUvVyOdHlner@ChacxgDmtwOKrxnripPCoCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.

Get the ebook!

Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:

• Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
• Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
• Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
• Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
• Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
• Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )

Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info

Public seminars

The Power Affect: How We Express Our Personal Power

Many people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.

• A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   
• A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   

Bullet Points: Mastery or Madness?

Decision-makers in modern organizations commonly demand briefings in the form of bullet points or a series of series of bullet points. But this form of presentation has limited value for complex decisions. We need something more. We actually need to think. Briefers who combine the bullet-point format with a variety of persuasion techniques can mislead decision-makers, guiding them into making poor decisions. Read more about this program.

• A recording of a program presented June 24, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   
• A recording of a program presented June 24, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.