How to Foresee the Foreseeable: Preferences

Although we don't always realize how our own preferences affect the outcomes of our efforts while those efforts are underway, this effect is often clearer after the fact. Obvious, too, is the effect of preferences on the outcomes of the efforts of other people. For instance, we easily understand why people procrastinate doing what they dislike. And we can also understand why people spend too much effort working on things they enjoy.

Yet we repeatedly misallocate resources. We often have the feeling that "we should have started this earlier;" or "We should have spent more on that;" or "We should never have undertaken this effort at all." Is it possible that so many tasks are beyond our ability to estimate the resources required? Or is something else is going on? Something we don't recognize?

Perhaps the problem relates to preferences in a subtler way.

One key to understanding the hidden effects of preferences might be the very fact that we feel that we could have foreseen the outcome. When we have a feeling after the fact, that we could have recognized some condition or other, we're acknowledging that we might have overlooked something. We might have failed to acquire information that was actually available. Or we might have failed to notice a connection that is now obvious. There are many possibilities, but one that is most difficult to accept is that we might be dealing with a phenomenon that distorts our judgment.

Accepting that our judgment might have been distorted can be upsetting, because we rely on judgment in almost every decision-making exercise. But rejecting out of hand the possibility of distortions makes us vulnerable to future distortions.

In this case, Accepting that our judgment might
have been distorted can be
upsetting, because we rely on
judgment in almost every
decision-making exercisethe effect of appeal or repulsion goes beyond mere resource allocation. Using the Eisenhower Matrix, popularized by Steven Covey as the Importance/Urgency Matrix, we can see that appeal or repulsion can distort our priorities by distorting our assessment of the importance or the urgency of tasks. Simply put, we're more likely to regard as important or urgent those tasks that we find appealing, and less likely to so regard those tasks we find repellent. In Covey's terms, appeal pushes tasks toward Quadrant I (both urgent and important), while repulsion pushes tasks towards Quadrant IV (both non-urgent and unimportant). And since the effect of appeal or repulsion is a distortion of judgment, this tendency is usually outside our awareness.

When assigning priorities to tasks, if some tasks are very appealing or repellent, be aware that the quality of your judgment of importance and urgency is at risk. Acknowledge what you like and what you don't, publicly and verbally. Use that acknowledgment to impose a discipline of objectivity on the process of setting priorities. First in this series   Top    Next Issue

Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!

There is much on the Web about the Eisenhower Matrix and the Importance/Urgency Matrix. For Covey's approach, see his book, First Things First.

Your comments are welcome

About Point Lookout

Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.

Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.

Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.

Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.

Related articles

More articles on Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness:

Bonuses

How we deal with adversity can make the difference between happiness and something else. And how we deal with adversity depends on how we see it.

The Deck Chairs of the Titanic: Strategy

Much of what we call work is about as effective and relevant as rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic. We continue our exploration of futile and irrelevant work, this time emphasizing behaviors related to strategy.

How to Reject Expert Opinion: I

When groups of decision-makers confront complex problems, they sometimes choose not to consult experts or to reject their advice. How do groups come to make these choices?

Ego Depletion and Priority Setting

Setting priorities for tasks is tricky when we find the tasks unappealing, because we have limited energy for self-control. Here are some strategies for limiting these effects on priority setting.

Meeting Troubles: Culture

Sometimes meetings are less effective than they might be because of cultural factors that are outside our awareness. Here are some examples.

See also Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Problem Solving and Creativity for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

Coming September 30: Seven More Planning Pitfalls: II

Planning teams, like all teams, are susceptible to several patterns of interaction that can lead to counter-productive results. Three of these most relevant to planners are False Consensus, Groupthink, and Shared Information Bias. Available here and by RSS on September 30.

And on October 7: Seven More Planning Pitfalls: III

Planning teams, like all teams, are vulnerable to several patterns of interaction that can lead to counter-productive results. Two of these relevant to planners are a cognitive bias called the IKEA Effect, and a systemic bias against realistic estimates of cost and schedule. Available here and by RSS on October 7.

Coaching services

I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenmhXARWRMUvVyOdHlner@ChacxgDmtwOKrxnripPCoCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.

Get the ebook!

Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:

• Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
• Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
• Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
• Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
• Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
• Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )

Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info

Public seminars

The Power Affect: How We Express Our Personal Power

Many people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.

• A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   
• A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   

Bullet Points: Mastery or Madness?

Decision-makers in modern organizations commonly demand briefings in the form of bullet points or a series of series of bullet points. But this form of presentation has limited value for complex decisions. We need something more. We actually need to think. Briefers who combine the bullet-point format with a variety of persuasion techniques can mislead decision-makers, guiding them into making poor decisions. Read more about this program.

• A recording of a program presented June 24, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
   
• A recording of a program presented June 24, Monthly Webinar, sponsored by Technobility Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.