How to Foresee the Foreseeable: Preferences

Although we don't always realize how our own preferences affect the outcomes of our efforts while those efforts are underway, this effect is often clearer after the fact. Obvious, too, is the effect of preferences on the outcomes of the efforts of other people. For instance, we easily understand why people procrastinate doing what they dislike. And we can also understand why people spend too much effort working on things they enjoy.

Yet we repeatedly misallocate resources. We often have the feeling that "we should have started this earlier;" or "We should have spent more on that;" or "We should never have undertaken this effort at all." Is it possible that so many tasks are beyond our ability to estimate the resources required? Or is something else is going on? Something we don't recognize?

Perhaps the problem relates to preferences in a subtler way.

One key to understanding the hidden effects of preferences might be the very fact that we feel that we could have foreseen the outcome. When we have a feeling after the fact, that we could have recognized some condition or other, we're acknowledging that we might have overlooked something. We might have failed to acquire information that was actually available. Or we might have failed to notice a connection that is now obvious. There are many possibilities, but one that is most difficult to accept is that we might be dealing with a phenomenon that distorts our judgment.

Accepting that our judgment might have been distorted can be upsetting, because we rely on judgment in almost every decision-making exercise. But rejecting out of hand the possibility of distortions makes us vulnerable to future distortions.

In this case, Accepting that our judgment might
have been distorted can be
upsetting, because we rely on
judgment in almost every
decision-making exercisethe effect of appeal or repulsion goes beyond mere resource allocation. Using the Eisenhower Matrix, popularized by Steven Covey as the Importance/Urgency Matrix, we can see that appeal or repulsion can distort our priorities by distorting our assessment of the importance or the urgency of tasks. Simply put, we're more likely to regard as important or urgent those tasks that we find appealing, and less likely to so regard those tasks we find repellent. In Covey's terms, appeal pushes tasks toward Quadrant I (both urgent and important), while repulsion pushes tasks towards Quadrant IV (both nonurgent and unimportant). And since the effect of appeal or repulsion is a distortion of judgment, this tendency is usually outside our awareness.

When assigning priorities to tasks, if some tasks are very appealing or repellent, be aware that the quality of your judgment of importance and urgency is at risk. Acknowledge what you like and what you don't, publicly and verbally. Use that acknowledgment to impose a discipline of objectivity on the process of setting priorities.   First issue in this series   Top    Next Issue

Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!

There is much on the Web about the Eisenhower Matrix and the Importance/Urgency Matrix. For Covey's approach, see his book, First Things First.

Your comments are welcome

About Point Lookout

Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.

This article in its entirety was written by a human being. No machine intelligence was involved in any way.

Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.

Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.

Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.

Related articles

More articles on Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness:

Names and Faces

Most of us feel recognized, respected, and acknowledged when others use our names. And many of us have difficulty remembering the names of others, especially those we don't know well. How can we get better at connecting names and faces?

Obstacles to Compromise

Compromise is the art of devising an approach acceptable to all parties. A talent for compromise is rare. What makes finding compromises so difficult?

You Can't Control What Other People Think

Ever think that the world would be a much better place if you could control what other people think? Maybe it would be. And maybe not...

How to Get Out of Firefighting Mode: II

We know we're in firefighting mode when a new urgent problem disrupts our work on another urgent problem, and the new problem makes it impossible to use the solution we thought we had for some third problem we were also working on. Here's Part II of a set of suggestions for getting out of firefighting mode.

Heart with Mind

We say people have "heart" when they continue to pursue a goal despite obstacles that would discourage almost everyone. We say that people are stubborn when they continue to pursue a goal that we regard as unachievable. What are our choices when achieving the goal is difficult?

See also Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

Coming April 30: On Planning in Plan-Hostile Environments: II

When we finally execute plans, we encounter obstacles. So we find workarounds or adjust the plans. But there are times when nothing we try gets us back on track. When this happens for nearly every plan, we might be working in a plan-hostile environment. Available here and by RSS on April 30.

And on May 7: Subject Matter Bullying

Most workplace bullying tactics have analogs in the schoolyard — isolation, physical attacks, name-calling, and rumor-mongering are common examples. Subject matter bullying might be an exception, because it requires expertise in a sophisticated knowledge domain. And that's where trouble begins. Available here and by RSS on May 7.

Coaching services

I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenfHlRlTgqCIXkUHBTner@ChacrEuHRQPYVKkOucGfoCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.

Get the ebook!

Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:

• Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
• Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
• Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
• Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
• Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
• Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )

Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500-1000 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info