Point Lookout: a free weekly publication of Chaco Canyon Consulting
Volume 25, Issue 20;   May 14, 2025: Working with the Overconfident

Working with the Overconfident

by

A cognitive bias known as the Overconfidence Effect causes us to overestimate the reliability of our judgments. Decisions we make based on those judgments are therefore suspect. But there are steps we can take to make our confidence levels more realistic, and thus make our decisions more reliable.
Grissom, White, and Chaffee in front of the launch pad containing their AS-204 space vehicle

Grissom, White, and Chaffee in front of the launch pad containing their AS-204 space vehicle, 17 Jan 1967. The three astronauts died in a launch pad fire on 27 Jan 1967. Although testing had revealed numerous design deficiencies by the time of the fire, NASA had considered none of them to be sufficient cause to pause for adjustments. The term "Go Fever," coined after the accident to indicate a form of overconfidence, was later used to describe NASA's organizational frame of mind. The term plan continuation bias, developed later, probably also applies. Image by NASA photographer, courtesy Wikimedia.

The Overconfidence Effect is a cognitive bias that causes us to have confidence in the validity of our judgments at a level beyond what their accuracy could reliably support. The effect is evident in three ways: (1) We tend to overestimate our own performance; (2) We tend to assess our own performance as higher than it actually is relative to others; and (3) We tend to be overly precise when we assess the certainty or accuracy of our own beliefs. [Moore & Healy 2008] [Brenner 2015.4] The effect is more pronounced when confidence is high.

When organizational decision-makers make their decisions, they rely on advice from subordinates and professional advisors, all of whom are susceptible to the Overconfidence Effect. If decision-makers fail to account for the Overconfidence Effect, they're at risk of making decisions that produce disappointing results. Many have therefore adopted strategies that are intended to mitigate the effect.

Experiential mitigation of the Overconfidence Effect

Training those who supply judgments and recommendations is one popular mitigation method. Educating advisors and advisees about the effect does help. But as Russo and Shoemaker note, "experience reduces overconfidence." [Russo & Schoemaker 1992] Training is good. Experiential training is better. Experiential experience is best. Actual experience has the added advantage that it's based on incidents that are relevant to the work at hand.

Here are three tactics that can improve the way we deal with the Overconfidence Effect.

Experience reduces overconfidence.
It has the added advantage that
it's based on incidents that are
relevant to the work at hand.
Curmudgeon teams
When you're considering a proposal, appoint several people to team up to oppose the idea. Make it their job to ask the difficult questions and to pose the difficult what-ifs. This approach invigorates the debate, and it's a lot of fun, especially in costume. To avoid any long-lasting effect on individuals who role-play curmudgeons, rotate this job on a monthly basis. See "Guidelines for Curmudgeon Teams," Point Lookout for January 16, 2019, for more.
The Switch-Side Debate
In debates at work, either in the context of meetings, teleconferences, or any written communication context, people tend to attach themselves to one viewpoint or another. The Overconfidence Effect can then cause them to be even more tightly attached to that viewpoint. After people have settled on their viewpoints, ask everyone to switch to another. In a binary debate, for example, if they were in favor, they must now be opposed. By requiring everyone to then defend a position they have previously rejected, we create an environment that causes all participants to confront their own views. [McGinnis 2014]
Everyone must then open their minds to the possibility that their original viewpoint, which they regarded as correct, might now be questioned. If their confidence in their position was unjustified, they then find themselves in a context in which it's safe to question their original viewpoint. This process tempers overconfidence.
Premortems
Premortems are simulated retrospective examinations of future events, conducted as if those future events had already occurred — and failed. The name premortem is a play on the term postmortem, which is one of the names of the practice otherwise known as retrospective or after-action review. [Kerth 2001] By combining the benefits of psychological safety with a shift in temporal perspective, premortems offer advantages for anyone intent on tempering overconfidence. Participants in premortems, who are playing roles of future investigators of future failure, must necessarily relax any commitment to present positions, because the premise of the premortem is that the present position is flawed. See "Premortems," Point Lookout for March 23, 2022, for more.

Last words

Although popular topics related to the overconfidence effect tend to emphasize mitigation, exploitation of the effect can be of greater importance. For example, a negotiator who is skilled at creating overconfidence in his or her counterparts could influence the negotiation against the interests of the counterparts to such an extent that the durability of the negotiated agreement is compromised. Go to top Top  Next issue: Mismanaging Project Managers: Mechanics  Next Issue

How to Spot a Troubled Project Before the Trouble StartsProjects never go quite as planned. We expect that, but we don't expect disaster. How can we get better at spotting disaster when there's still time to prevent it? How to Spot a Troubled Project Before the Trouble Starts is filled with tips for executives, senior managers, managers of project managers, and sponsors of projects in project-oriented organizations. It helps readers learn the subtle cues that indicate that a project is at risk for wreckage in time to do something about it. It's an ebook, but it's about 15% larger than "Who Moved My Cheese?" Just . Order Now! .

Footnotes

Comprehensive list of all citations from all editions of Point Lookout
[Moore & Healy 2008]
Don A. Moore and Paul J. Healy. "The trouble with overconfidence," Psychological review, 115:2 (2008), pp. 502-517. Available here. Retrieved 7 August 2023. Back
[Brenner 2015.4]
Richard Brenner. "Overconfidence at Work," Point Lookout blog, April 15, 2015. Available here. Back
[Russo & Schoemaker 1992]
J. Edward Russo and Paul JH Schoemaker. "Managing overconfidence," Sloan management review 33:2 (1992): pp. 7-17. Available here. Retrieved 27 April 2025. . Back
[McGinnis 2014]
David McGinnis. "In Defense of Topical Switch-Side Debate," National Symposium for Debate blog, October 31, 2014. Available here. Retrieved 28 April 2025. Back
[Kerth 2001]
Norman L. Kerth. Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Reviews. New York: Dorset House, 2001. Order from Amazon.com. Back

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When we speak or write, the phrases we use have both form and meaning. Although we usually think of form and meaning as distinct, humans tend to assess as more meaningful and valid those phrases that are more beautifully formed. The rhyme-as-reason effect causes us to confuse the validity of a phrase with its aesthetics.
Unripe grapes that are probably sourMotivated Reasoning
When we prefer a certain outcome of a decision process, we risk falling into a pattern of motivated reasoning. That can cause us to gather data and construct arguments that erroneously lead to the outcome we prefer, often outside our awareness. And it can happen even when the outcome we prefer is known to threaten our safety and security.
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See also Cognitive Biases at Work for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

Mark Twain in 1907Coming July 9: On Being Seriously Funny at Work
Humor is such a valuable tool at work that it ought to be recognized as an official contribution by team members who provide the laughs that keep some teams from auto-destructing. Even if you're not known for bringing the funny, there are a few simple techniques that can change your image. Available here and by RSS on July 9.
Mark Twain in 1907And on July 16: Responding to Unwelcome Events
Unwelcome events have two kinds of effects on decision-makers. One set of effects appears as we respond to events that have actually occurred. Another set manifests itself as we prepare for unwelcome events that haven't yet occurred, but which might occur. Making a wrong decision in either case can be costly. Available here and by RSS on July 16.

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