
A tire reef off the coast of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. In the 1970s, approximately 2 million tires were dumped here to create an artificial reef, in what is now recognized as a colossal failure. Three decades later, military divers have begun removing the tires as part of their dive training. Marine life hasn't colonized the "reef," because the tires are too light. They break up and move about under the action of the ocean, and when they do, they damage natural reefs. Attempts to build tire reefs with bundles of tires or by weighting them with concrete have also failed. Moreover, the tires are thought to leach toxic materials.
Tire reefs all around the world have exhibited similar results. In retrospect, the effort was a failure, but hindsight bias has prevented us from recognizing the true failure of the effort: omission of a long-term testing program. The concept of tire reefs was indeed flawed, but there has been little discussion of the reason why a one- or two-decade testing program wasn't undertaken before the major dumping occurred. Because failure to address that question exposes the world to repetition of this large-scale environmental disaster, one can only wonder why the threads of such a discussion aren't as widely available as the stories of the failure itself.
Photo by U.S. Navy courtesy Wikipedia.
People often believe that an outcome was predictable or even inevitable, after they know what that outcome was. When we do this, sometimes we're right, but often our sense of predictability or inevitability is exaggerated. This perception is so common that psychologists have given it a name: hindsight bias. Because of hindsight bias, we tend to see causal connections between antecedent conditions and outcomes, even when those supposedly causal connections are false. We tend not to recall conditions that would introduce uncertainty in the outcome, or which would tend to produce dramatically different outcomes. And we do recall elements that didn't exist if they support explanations that predict what actually happened.
For example, in a written evaluation of a subordinate's performance, a supervisor might observe, "George's impulsiveness created toxic conflict, not only involving George, but also between other team members." Toxic conflict might well have occurred, but was George's impulsiveness really the cause? Or was it an effect? A more useful comment would have provided evidence for the supposed causal connection, and it would have addressed alternative explanations for the toxic conflict that did occur.
Here are three suggestions for managing the risk of hindsight bias in the workplace.
- Awareness is essential
- Ignorance of hindsight bias allows it to thrive. Educate all those responsible for interpreting past events. Give them the tools they need to detect hindsight bias in themselves and their own thinking.
- Accept that hindsight bias is a risk, and mitigate the risk
- Although awareness and sensitivity can reduce the incidence of hindsight bias, total elimination is almost certainly impossible. Cooperative action is required. For example, in the performance appraisal process, supervisor and subordinate can be encouraged to discuss the possible presence of hindsight bias in the appraisal, and then come to agreement that they have dealt with those possibilities. Introducing this idea into the appraisal process is an example of mitigating hindsight bias risk.
- Identify processes at risk of hindsight bias
- Some processes are especially vulnerable to hindsight bias. The two mentioned here — performanceIgnorance of hindsight
bias allows it to thrive appraisal and project retrospectives — are merely examples. Strategic decisions, including decisions such as reorganizations, acquisitions, relocations, downsizing, outsourcing, and more, are often subject to evaluation, and therefore hindsight bias risk. An inventory of all processes for hindsight bias vulnerability is a necessary element of any program to address the effects of hindsight bias.
After identifying those processes most susceptible to hindsight bias risk, mitigation is the next step. Mitigation approaches must suit the process, but effective measures include checks and balances along the lines of the approach indicated above for risk management in the performance appraisal process. Multiple viewpoints and healthy, vigorous dialog are essential. Top
Next Issue
Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!
Your comments are welcome
Would you like to see your comments posted here? rbrenEQuetChPjwYBDxmgner@ChacxXTxBssoFmfDfMugoCanyon.comSend me your comments by email, or by Web form.About Point Lookout
Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.
Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.
Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.
Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.
Related articles
More articles on Emotions at Work:
Reverse Micromanagement
- Micromanagement is too familiar to too many of us. Less familiar is inappropriate interference in the
reverse direction — in the work of our supervisors or even higher in the chain. Disciplinary action
isn't always helpful, especially when some of the causes of reverse micromanagement are organizational.
The Injured Teammate: II
- You're a team lead, and one of the team members is suddenly very ill or has been severely injured. How
do you handle it? Here are some suggestions for breaking the news to the team.
Compulsive Talkers at Work: Peers II
- Our exploration of approaches for dealing with compulsive talkers now concludes, with Part II of a set
of suggestions for what to do when peers who talk compulsively interfere with your work.
Solving the Problem of Solving Problems
- Problem solving is sometimes difficult when our biases interfere with generating candidate solutions,
or with evaluating candidates we already have. Here are some suggestions for dealing with these biases.
On Differences and Disagreements
- When we disagree, it helps to remember that our differences often seem more marked than they really
are. Here are some hints for finding a path back to agreement.
See also Emotions at Work, Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Cognitive Biases at Work for more related articles.
Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
Coming June 1: Mental Accounting and Technical Debt
- In many organizations, technical debt has resisted efforts to control it. We've made important technical advances, but full control might require applying some results of the behavioral economics community, including a concept they call mental accounting. Available here and by RSS on June 1.
And on June 8: Flexible Queue Management
- In meetings of 5-30 participants, managing the queue of contributors can be challenging. A strict first-in-first-out order can cause confusion and waste of time if important contributions are delayed. Some meetings need more flexible queue management. Available here and by RSS on June 8.
Coaching services
I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenEQuetChPjwYBDxmgner@ChacxXTxBssoFmfDfMugoCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.
Get the ebook!
Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:
- Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
- Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
- Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
- Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
- Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
- Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )
Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500-1000 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info
Public seminars
- The Power Affect: How We Express Our Personal Power
Many
people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.
- A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- Bullet Points: Mastery or Madness?
Decis
ion makers in modern organizations commonly demand briefings in the form of bullet points or a series of series of bullet points. But this form of presentation has limited value for complex decisions. We need something more. We actually need to think. Briefers who combine the bullet-point format with a variety of persuasion techniques can mislead decision makers, guiding them into making poor decisions. Read more about this program.
- A recording of a program presented June 24, 2020, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- A recording of a program presented June 24, 2020, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- A recording of a program presented June 24, 2020, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
Follow Rick





Recommend this issue to a friend
Send an email message to a friend
rbrenEQuetChPjwYBDxmgner@ChacxXTxBssoFmfDfMugoCanyon.comSend a message to Rick
A Tip A Day feed
Point Lookout weekly feed
