People often believe that an outcome was predictable or even inevitable, after they know what that outcome was. When we do this, sometimes we're right, but often our sense of predictability or inevitability is exaggerated. This perception is so common that psychologists have given it a name: hindsight bias. Because of hindsight bias, we tend to see causal connections between antecedent conditions and outcomes, even when those supposedly causal connections are false. We tend not to recall conditions that would introduce uncertainty in the outcome, or which would tend to produce dramatically different outcomes. And we do recall elements that didn't exist if they support explanations that predict what actually happened.
For example, in a written evaluation of a subordinate's performance, a supervisor might observe, "George's impulsiveness created toxic conflict, not only involving George, but also between other team members." Toxic conflict might well have occurred, but was George's impulsiveness really the cause? Or was it an effect? A more useful comment would have provided evidence for the supposed causal connection, and it would have addressed alternative explanations for the toxic conflict that did occur.
Here are three suggestions for managing the risk of hindsight bias in the workplace.
- Awareness is essential
- Ignorance of hindsight bias allows it to thrive. Educate all those responsible for interpreting past events. Give them the tools they need to detect hindsight bias in themselves and their own thinking.
- Accept that hindsight bias is a risk, and mitigate the risk
- Although awareness and sensitivity can reduce the incidence of hindsight bias, total elimination is almost certainly impossible. Cooperative action is required. For example, in the performance appraisal process, supervisor and subordinate can be encouraged to discuss the possible presence of hindsight bias in the appraisal, and then come to agreement that they have dealt with those possibilities. Introducing this idea into the appraisal process is an example of mitigating hindsight bias risk.
- Identify processes at risk of hindsight bias
- Some processes are especially vulnerable to hindsight bias. The two mentioned here — performanceIgnorance of hindsight
bias allows it to thrive appraisal and project retrospectives — are merely examples. Strategic decisions, including decisions such as reorganizations, acquisitions, relocations, downsizing, outsourcing, and more, are often subject to evaluation, and therefore hindsight bias risk. An inventory of all processes for hindsight bias vulnerability is a necessary element of any program to address the effects of hindsight bias.
After identifying those processes most susceptible to hindsight bias risk, mitigation is the next step. Mitigation approaches must suit the process, but effective measures include checks and balances along the lines of the approach indicated above for risk management in the performance appraisal process. Multiple viewpoints and healthy, vigorous dialog are essential. Top Next Issue
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Related articles
More articles on Emotions at Work:
- Getting Home in Time for Dinner
- Some of us are fortunate — we work for companies that make sure they have enough people to do
all the work. Yet, we still work too many hours. We overwork ourselves by taking on too much, and then
we work long hours to get it done. If you're an over-worker, what can you do about it?
- Responding to Threats: III
- Workplace threats come in a variety of flavors. One class of threats is indirect. Threateners who use
the indirect threats aim to evoke fear of consequences brought about not by the threatener, but by other
parties. Indirect threats are indeed warnings, but not in the way you might think.
- Unintended Consequences
- Sometimes, when we solve problems, the solutions create new problems that can be worse than the problems
we solve. Why does this happen? How can we limit this effect?
- Confirmation Bias: Workplace Consequences Part I
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in the workplace. In this part, we explore its effects on our thinking.
- Toxic Conflict at Work
- Preventing toxic conflict is a whole lot better than trying to untangle it once it starts. But to prevent
toxic conflict, we must understand some basics of conflict, and why untangling toxic conflict can be
so difficult.
See also Emotions at Work, Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Cognitive Biases at Work for more related articles.
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