
Platform supply vessels battle the fire that was consuming remnants of the Deepwater Horizon oilrig in April 2010. This photo was taken by a U.S. Coast Guard MH-65C Dolphin rescue helicopter, which documented the fire while searching for survivors. Although organizational politics and pressure to meet financial objectives certainly influenced decision-makers, optimism bias might well have played a role. Photo courtesy U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Read the final report on the incident, issued by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, "REPORT REGARDING THE CAUSES OF THE APRIL 20, 2010 MACONDO WELL BLOWOUT".
After we take in information from the world around us, we interpret it. For example, one (exceptionally simple) meaning of a message announcing an "all hands" meeting today at 3 PM might be, "The all hands meeting is at 3 PM." A more complicated interpretation, which also considers the manner of delivery of the announcement, might be, "This is a surprise meeting, on very short notice. Hmmm…"
Interpretation, the second stage of Jerry Weinberg's simplified version of Virginia Satir's Interaction Model of communication [Brenner 2015], is vulnerable to the effects of cognitive biases — systematic deviations from purely objective interpretation. These biases can be helpful, because they can lead us to important insights faster than objective, rational deduction can. And they can also mislead us, with serious and regrettable consequences.
Here's Part I of a little catalog of phenomena affecting interpretation in ways that contribute to wishful thinking.
- Optimism bias
- Among cognitive biases, one that's closely related to wishful thinking is optimism bias. It causes us to judge that, compared to others, we're less likely to experience a given undesirable event. Research suggests, albeit a bit less clearly, that optimism bias also causes us to believe that we're relatively more likely to experience a desirable event [Gouveia 2001]. Optimism bias can thus cause us to be more likely to accept (or discover) interpretations that are relatively favorable, and be less likely to accept (or discover) less favorable interpretations.
- For important matters, For important matters, proceed
slowly and thoughtfully when
making meaning of informationproceed slowly and thoughtfully when making meaning of information. Establish for yourself a minimum number of alternative interpretations required before you begin to focus on a single one. Because we rarely have trouble finding two interpretations, three or more alternatives seem to be necessary to compel thoughtful consideration. Teams and groups have advantages here, because their numbers help them develop alternatives more easily, especially if they can appoint a subgroup of "designated skeptics." - Framing effects
- A framing effect is underway when the style, wording, or manner of presenting information affects how recipients interpret it. In the now-classic example, compare two descriptions of a medical procedure. The positive form: "It has significantly relieved 60% of patients." And the negative form: "It provided no significant relief for 40% of patients." These two descriptions have identical meaning, but patients listening to the positive form are more likely to elect the procedure. The "frame" affects how we interpret our observations. Framing effects are the basis of the "spin" techniques politicians and advertisers so often use.
- To control your own wishful interpretations, try reframing observations so as to elicit alternatives. The effort can reveal that your original interpretation might need broadening. Reframing exercises are relatively easier for teams and groups, because they inherently have multiple perspectives. One can even imagine devising a "reframing game."
We'll continue next time with several more phenomena that cause us to systematically interpret what people say or do, or information we receive, to be in alignment with our wishes. First in this series Next in this series Top
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Related articles
More articles on Project Management:
Films Not About Project Teams: II
- Here's Part II of a list of films and videos about project teams that weren't necessarily meant to be
about project teams. Most are available to borrow from the public library, and all are great fun.
Project Improvisation Fundamentals
- Project plans are useful — to a point. Every plan I've ever seen eventually has problems when
it contacts reality. At that point, we replan or improvise. But improvisation is an art form. Here's
Part I of a set of tips for mastering project improvisation.
The Retrospective Funding Problem
- If your organization regularly conducts project retrospectives, you're among the very fortunate. Many
organizations don't. But even among those that do, retrospectives are often underfunded, conducted by
amateurs, or too short. Often, key people "couldn't make it." We can do better than this.
What's stopping us?
Projects as Proxy Targets: II
- Most projects have both supporters and detractors. When a project has been approved and execution begins,
some detractors don't give up. Here's Part II of a catalog of tactics detractors use to sow chaos.
Missing the Obvious: I
- At times, when the unexpected occurs, we recognize with hindsight that the unexpected could have been
expected. How do we miss the obvious? What's happening when we do?
See also Project Management and Critical Thinking at Work for more related articles.
Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
Coming April 21: Choice-Supportive Bias
- Choice-supportive bias is a cognitive bias that causes us to evaluate our past choices as more fitting than they actually were. The erroneous judgments it produces can be especially costly to organizations interested in improving decision processes. Available here and by RSS on April 21.
And on April 28: The Self-Explanation Effect
- In the learning context, self-explanation is the act of explaining to oneself what one is learning. Self-explanation has been shown to increase the rate of acquiring mastery. The mystery is why we don't structure knowledge work to exploit this phenomenon. Available here and by RSS on April 28.
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people who possess real organizational power have a characteristic demeanor. It's the way they project their presence. I call this the power affect. Some people — call them power pretenders — adopt the power affect well before they attain significant organizational power. Unfortunately for their colleagues, and for their organizations, power pretenders can attain organizational power out of proportion to their merit or abilities. Understanding the power affect is therefore important for anyone who aims to attain power, or anyone who works with power pretenders. Read more about this program.
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- A recording of a program presented June 29, 2017, Monthly
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Decis
ion-makers in modern organizations commonly demand briefings in the form of bullet points or a series of series of bullet points. But this form of presentation has limited value for complex decisions. We need something more. We actually need to think. Briefers who combine the bullet-point format with a variety of persuasion techniques can mislead decision-makers, guiding them into making poor decisions. Read more about this program.
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- A recording of a program presented June 24, 2020, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
- A recording of a program presented June 24, 2020, Monthly
Webinar, sponsored by Technobility
Webinar Series. PMI members can earn 1.0 Category 'A' PDU by viewing this program. View this program now.
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