Allison stood at the front of the room, next to the LCD, wanting desperately not to be there, as the marketing VP demanded, "Don't give me 'March 15 to April 29.' I want to know when exactly this thing will ship!" Trouble was, she couldn't say exactly — things were too unpredictable, and he just didn't seem to get it. So she caved: "OK, we'll have it by April 29."
"Oh, no you don't," he replied. "We'll take the middle of your range. What's that," he turned to the director beside him, "April 5? April 5. That's it. Next case!"
So that's what they did, and Allison's team finally shipped on April 26, three weeks late. A black eye for Allison, for the team, and for the engineering group. What was going on here?
Problem-solving organizations do two kinds of work — Operations and Projects. Operations work is ongoing effort repeated often — things like manufacturing, "routine" administration, and infrastructure operations. Project work is one-of-a-kind — new product development, relocation, and reorganization. Operations are repeatable and less risky. Projects are unique and riskier. Although we usually manage Projects as if they were Operations, Projects must be managed differently. Quantum Physics can help us understand why.
In Quantum Physics some things are inherently unknowable. For example, the more precisely we know the position of a moving body, the less precisely we can know its velocity, and vice versa. Classical Physics had no such restriction.
You get
to choose:
innovation or
predictability.
Not both.There is an analogy in management. If we want to know cost and schedule precisely, we must reduce innovation, because innovation creates risk. If we accept risk, we must settle for less predictability of cost and schedule. Quantum Management says that you can't have precision in the context of risk.
Since our management practices originated in operations-oriented organizations, our managers don't like to hear that "we expect completion within 4-6 months." They often demand "drop dead" dates. This is Classical Management, and it's analogous to Classical Physics.
You can move your organization toward Quantum Management. As a manager:
- Ask not "When will it be ready?" Ask, "When is there a 95% probability that it will be ready?"
- Reward project managers who make estimates in 95% confidence bands.
- Require that Corporate Finance manage risk across a portfolio of projects, rather than by demanding precision at the individual project level.
As a project manager:
- Estimate best and worst case as 95% confidence bands.
- When people ask you for a drop-dead date, try to educate them in Quantum Management. You might fail — or you might make some progress.
Whenever you're at the front of the room being hammered for a drop-dead date, remember that accepting one doesn't change the laws of Quantum Management. Top Next Issue
Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!
Your comments are welcome
Would you like to see your comments posted here? rbrenyrWpTxHuyCrjZbUpner@ChacnoFNuSyWlVzCaGfooCanyon.comSend me your comments by email, or by Web form.About Point Lookout
Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.
This article in its entirety was written by a human being. No machine intelligence was involved in any way.
Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.
Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.
Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.
Related articles
More articles on Project Management:
- Geese Don't Land on Twigs
- Since companies sometimes tackle projects that they have no hope of completing successfully, your project
might be completely wrong for your company. How can you tell whether your project is a fit for your company?
- False Summits: I
- Mountaineers often experience "false summits," when just as they thought they were nearing
the summit, it turns out that there is much more climbing to do. So it is in project work.
- Unresponsive Suppliers: I
- If we depend on suppliers for some tasks in a project, or for necessary materials, their performance
can affect our ability to meet deadlines. What can we do when a supplier's performance is problematic,
and the supplier doesn't respond to our increasingly urgent pleas for attention?
- Anticipating Absence: Internal Consulting
- Most consultants are advisors from outside the organization. But when many employees are unavailable
because of the Coronavirus pandemic, we need to find ways to access the knowledge that remains inside
the organization. Internal consulting can help.
- Defect Streams and Their Sources
- Regarding defects as elements of a stream provides a perspective that aids in identifying causes other
than negligence. Examples of root causes are unfunded mandates, misallocation of the cost of procedure
competence, and frequent changes in procedures.
See also Project Management and Project Management for more related articles.
Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
- Coming December 11: White Water Rafting as a Metaphor for Group Development
- Tuckman's model of small group development, best known as "Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing," applies better to development of some groups than to others. We can use a metaphor to explore how the model applies to Storming in task-oriented work groups. Available here and by RSS on December 11.
- And on December 18: Subgrouping and Conway's Law
- When task-oriented work groups address complex tasks, they might form subgroups to address subtasks. The structure of the subgroups and the order in which they form depend on the structure of the group's task and the sequencing of the subtasks. Available here and by RSS on December 18.
Coaching services
I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenyrWpTxHuyCrjZbUpner@ChacnoFNuSyWlVzCaGfooCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.
Get the ebook!
Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:
- Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
- Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
- Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
- Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
- Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
- Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )
Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500-1000 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info
Follow Rick
Recommend this issue to a friend
Send an email message to a friend
rbrenyrWpTxHuyCrjZbUpner@ChacnoFNuSyWlVzCaGfooCanyon.comSend a message to Rick
A Tip A Day feed
Point Lookout weekly feed
- Your stuff is brilliant! Thank you!
- You and Scott Adams both secretly work here, right?
- I really enjoy my weekly newsletters. I appreciate the quick read.
- A sort of Dr. Phil for Management!
- …extremely accurate, inspiring and applicable to day-to-day … invaluable.
- More