Unintended Consequences

You and your team have just solved a problem. It was difficult. It took some creative thinking. The solution now in place, forward progress resumes — for a while. Suddenly, a new problem appears. Progress halts, and you're back in deep yogurt.

Investigating what happened — and that can take time — you discover that at least some part of this second problem is traceable to the solution you found for the first problem.

It's a pattern so familiar that we have a name for it: "unintended consequences." The term arose in the context of economics, but the concept is so useful that it has been applied in politics, game design, engineering — everywhere.

In problem solving, we can use the concept to help limit the risk that a solution to one problem creates a new one.

Probably there are numerous ways for solutions to create new problems, but here are a few of those more common in my own experience and the experiences of my clients.

Missing knowledge or incorrect knowledge

We didn't know what we needed to know to get it right the first time, or some of what we "knew" was wrong.

Test what you do know for completeness and correctness. How do you know what you know?

Dogma, politics, budget, and schedule

We tend to be biased in favor of candidate solutions that are consistent with our cherished beliefs, or which satisfy political, budgetary, or schedule constraints; we tend to eliminate from consideration, prematurely, those that do not. And sometimes, when these factors get in the way, we don't even see some workable solutions.

What are the dogma, political, budgetary, or schedule factors affecting your problem? How biased are you?

Dirty work

We tend to be biased in favor of
candidate solutions that are consistent
with our cherished beliefs or with
external organizational constraints

When the full solution requires that we grapple with parts of the problem that we find distasteful, dull, or pedestrian, we can be so averse to that part of it that we do a bad job of it.

What part of what you need to do is distasteful or low status work?

Subtlety and difficulty

Even when we have access to all the information we need, the problem can be difficult to solve properly. A solid solution might require seeing the world from perspectives with which we have little experience.

Get fresh eyes. Talk to people who have the perspective you need.

Illusory similarity

Sometimes we notice similarities between the problem at hand and problems previously solved. Then, without stopping to prove that they are similar enough, we apply methods that worked in the past.

Look for proof that this problem is close enough to the problem previously solved. If you can't find proof, ask whether the differences really matter.

If you extend this list for your problem space, beware the unintended consequence of overconfidence. However complete your list becomes, unintended consequences might still emerge.  Top    Next Issue

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More articles on Problem Solving and Creativity:

Solutions as Found Art

Examining the most innovative solutions we've developed for difficult problems, we often find that they aren't purely new. Many contain pieces of familiar ideas and techniques combined together in new ways. Accepting this as a starting point can change our approach to problem solving.

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When people solve problems together, differences in preferred approaches can surface. Some prefer to emphasize the goal or objective, while others focus on the obstacles. This difference is at once an asset and annoyance.

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Design errors can cause unwanted outcomes, but they can also lead to welcome surprises. The causes of many design errors are fundamental attributes of the way groups function. Here is Part II of our exploration.

Wishful Significance: II

When we're beset by seemingly unresolvable problems, we sometimes conclude that "wishful thinking" was the cause. Wishful thinking can result from errors in assessing the significance of our observations. Here's a second group of causes of erroneous assessment of significance.

Guidelines for Curmudgeon Teams

The curmudgeon team is a subgroup of a larger team. Their job is to strengthen the team's conclusions and results by raising thorny issues that cause the team to reconsider the path it's about to take. In this way they help the team avoid dead ends and disasters.

See also Problem Solving and Creativity, Emotions at Work and Critical Thinking at Work for more related articles.

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One of the attributes of team cultures is something called power distance, which is a measure of the overall comfort people have with inequality in the distribution of power. Power distance can determine how well a team performs when executing high-risk projects. Available here and by RSS on October 23.

And on October 30: Power Distance and Risk

Managing or responding to project risks is much easier when team culture encourages people to report problems and question any plans they have reason to doubt. Here are five examples that show how such encouragement helps to manage risk. Available here and by RSS on October 30.

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