Goodhart's Law and Gaming the Metrics

As I noted last time, Goodhart's Law is the observation by Charles Goodhart that when we express an organizational goal in terms of a metric, the metric loses its value as a measure of anything. [Goodhart 1975] To be clear, metrics are quantifiable measures of attributes of business processes. Goodhart's observation, in essence, is that any such measurement supposedly indicates the difference between the current value and the goal value, but when the goal value is widely known, the current value is subject to distortions that make the current value unreliable. It's likely that several mechanisms account for this phenomenon, and some have been studied better than others.

I proposed last time that one factor that contributes to the loss of reliability of metrics is our tendency to believe that we can "measure" human behavior. Because something as complex as human behavior is bound to include abstractions, the exercise of "measurement" is likely less objective than, say, weighing a sack of potatoes. Consequently, our "metrics" are subject to distortions, which eventually erode their usefulness.

Gaming the metrics

Another source of distortions is a human behavior that goes by various names, including "gaming the metrics" and "juking the stats." It works like this.

When the goal value of a metric is widely known, members of the population whose behavior is supposedly represented by the metric in question begin adjusting their behavior so as to achieve the goal value of the metric. What is problematic about these adjustments is that organizations have difficulty enforcing limits on behavioral adjustments. Some adjustments are acceptable and welcome; others are intended to — and do — drive the metric value toward the goal, but not in a way that achieves the desired value.

Here's an example.

In several of these domains, we see how the people who are pressed for improved metrics respond to pressure. The police, for example, engage in a practice they call "juking the stats." To juke the stats, you adjust your behavior to produce better values of the metric (in this case crime data), without necessarily improving what that metric is supposed to "measure" (in this case crime). [Revankar 2016] .

Patterns of gaming metrics

The When the goal value of a metric is
widely known, people whose behavior is
represented by the metric adjust their
behavior to achieve the goal valueprocess of gaming metrics can occur wherever we use metrics. One well-studied area is misconduct in academic research. [Biagioli 2020] That work suggests several patterns of gaming metrics.

Counterfeit the data

Whatever is the process for collecting data for the metric, it probably relies on manual or automated data collection. In this pattern, someone intervenes in the data production process, providing false data that makes the metric report better results than actual data would. Audit trails can deter this activity, but wily counterfeiters can always hide their tracks.

Misstate categories

Some metrics consist of counts of issues binned according to a set of binning definitions. In this pattern, the populations in some of the categories are misstated. For example, if there are 22 issues in category "Severe" the report might state that there are only 15. One way to accomplish this is to make a snapshot of the category populations at an advantageous time. And, of course, simple falsifying is also effective.

Redefine categories

Another way to improve the populations in categories is to redefine the categories. Subtle changes in category definitions can appear to be intended to create a "more accurate representation of our status," when what they actually do is conceal the number of issues that are in the most problematic categories.

Assign highest priority to the least difficult issues

By consistently avoiding investing effort and resources in addressing difficult issues, the organization can create a long list of issues addressed. They might have little positive effect on the health of the organization, but their numbers convey a very different impression — one of substantial progress.

Restart the clock

To game metrics that measure elapsed time between events, restarting the clock is a handy tactic. For example, consider a metric that measures the time it takes to resolve a support ticket at a help desk. One way to game this metric is to declare a ticket resolved and close it before it's actually resolved. When the ticket's submitter objects, the help desk opens a "replacement" ticket, thereby restarting the clock. Another way to achieve a similar result is to declare a ticket unclear or ambiguous, close it, and send the submitter a document describing how to submit a ticket. There are probably dozens of ways to restart the clock.

Last words

When all else fails, there is one last option for those intent on misrepresenting the state of the organization: introduce new metrics. If the metrics in use are likely to produce an uncomfortable representation of the process in question, perhaps a different set of metrics might make a more favorable impression. Naturally, the new metrics must be accompanied by a justification of the claim that they produce a more accurate view of the process status. The justification can be the most difficult piece of the exercise.   First issue in this series   Top    Next Issue

Are your projects always (or almost always) late and over budget? Are your project teams plagued by turnover, burnout, and high defect rates? Turn your culture around. Read 52 Tips for Leaders of Project-Oriented Organizations, filled with tips and techniques for organizational leaders. Order Now!

Footnotes

Your comments are welcome

About Point Lookout

Thank you for reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and found it useful, and that you'll consider recommending it to a friend.

This article in its entirety was written by a human being. No machine intelligence was involved in any way.

Point Lookout is a free weekly email newsletter. Browse the archive of past issues. Subscribe for free.

Support Point Lookout by joining the Friends of Point Lookout, as an individual or as an organization.

Do you face a complex interpersonal situation? Send it in, anonymously if you like, and I'll give you my two cents.

Related articles

More articles on Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness:

Films Not About Project Teams: II

Here's Part II of a list of films and videos about project teams that weren't necessarily meant to be about project teams. Most are available to borrow from the public library, and all are great fun.

Give Me the Bad News First

I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that if you wait long enough, there will be some bad news. The good news is that the good news helps us deal with the bad news. And it helps a lot more if we get the bad news first.

How to Procrastinate

You probably know many techniques for procrastinating, and use them regularly, but vociferously deny doing so. That's what makes this such a delicate subject that I've been delaying writing this article. Well, those days are over.

Discussion Distractions: II

Meetings are less productive than they might be, if we could learn to recognize and prevent the most common distractions. Here is Part II of a small catalog of distractions frequently seen in meetings.

Virtual Interviews: I

The pandemic has made face-to-face job interviews less important. Although understanding the psychology of virtual interviews helps both interviewers and candidates, candidates would do well to use the virtual interview to demonstrate video presence.

See also Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness and Personal, Team, and Organizational Effectiveness for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

Coming December 11: White Water Rafting as a Metaphor for Group Development

Tuckman's model of small group development, best known as "Forming-Storming-Norming-Performing," applies better to development of some groups than to others. We can use a metaphor to explore how the model applies to Storming in task-oriented work groups. Available here and by RSS on December 11.

And on December 18: Subgrouping and Conway's Law

When task-oriented work groups address complex tasks, they might form subgroups to address subtasks. The structure of the subgroups and the order in which they form depend on the structure of the group's task and the sequencing of the subtasks. Available here and by RSS on December 18.

Coaching services

I offer email and telephone coaching at both corporate and individual rates. Contact Rick for details at rbrenyrWpTxHuyCrjZbUpner@ChacnoFNuSyWlVzCaGfooCanyon.com or (650) 787-6475, or toll-free in the continental US at (866) 378-5470.

Get the ebook!

Past issues of Point Lookout are available in six ebooks:

• Get 2001-2 in Geese Don't Land on Twigs (PDF, )
• Get 2003-4 in Why Dogs Wag (PDF, )
• Get 2005-6 in Loopy Things We Do (PDF, )
• Get 2007-8 in Things We Believe That Maybe Aren't So True (PDF, )
• Get 2009-10 in The Questions Not Asked (PDF, )
• Get all of the first twelve years (2001-2012) in The Collected Issues of Point Lookout (PDF, )

Are you a writer, editor or publisher on deadline? Are you looking for an article that will get people talking and get compliments flying your way? You can have 500-1000 words in your inbox in one hour. License any article from this Web site. More info