Motivated Reasoning

Cognitive biases are patterns of thinking that deviate systematically from evidence-based reasoning. Scientists have uncovered nearly 200 cognitive biases experimentally, though many might be closely related to each other. In the workplace, in any activity that requires careful judgment based on reliable situational assessment, cognitive biases create significant risk of compromising either decision quality, or communication reliability, or both.

The risk of poor decisions or unreliable communications is elevated when the time scale of the decision process is short, as in high-stakes discussions, heated debate, and emergencies. Methods for mitigating that risk are therefore valuable. But how can we possibly protect ourselves against the effects of 200 cognitive biases?

On a one-by-one basis — cognitive bias by cognitive bias — risk mitigation is difficult. There are too many cognitive biases. But we can become familiar with patterns of working and thinking that increase our vulnerability to cognitive biases. When we notice the indicators of these patterns, we can be alert to the risk of cognitive biases. Motivated reasoning [Kunda 1990] [Molden 2005] is one of those patterns.

Motivated reasoning, also known as motivated thinking, is a pattern of thinking that we use to reach conclusions we prefer by means of what appears to be evidence-based reasoning, but which might actually be nothing of the kind. We also use motivated reasoning to avoid reaching or to defer reaching conclusions that we'd rather not reach. Consider this example:

Suppose you have an outdoor activity to do tomorrow. And you really can't do it in rainy conditions. As you're making plans for tomorrow, how often do you check tomorrow's weather forecast during the afternoon today and during the evening?

Research shows that in such a scenario, people who regard the activity as desirable will, on average, check the forecast more often if the forecast is unfavorable. And people who regard the activity as undesirable will, on average, check the forecast more often if the forecast is favorable. In other words, data gathering is less intensive when the data indicates a favored result, and more intensive when the data indicates a disfavored result.

In this example, the existence of a preference affects the decision process. The preference provides a motivation that biases the decision, even though the actions undertaken seem consistent with unbiased, evidence-based reasoning.

In the workplace, motivated reasoning masquerades as reasonableness and probity. In that disguise motivated reasoning enables us to fool ourselves into believing that we're thinking and reasoning objectively when we are not. [Noval 2019] [Boiney 1997] Motivated reasoning is effective — counter-effective, actually — because it facilitates departure from evidence-based reasoning in two important ways.

Deceiving discourse participants

Because motivated reasoning is so superficially similar to evidence-based reasoning, it can conceal the effects of cognitive biases. Subjected to motivated reasoning, people come to believe that they're following an evidence-based argument. This leads them to the impression that they're engaged in critical thinking when they are not. Motivated reasoning suppresses our sensitivity to sources of bias in our decision processes.

Consuming resources

Any discourse Any discourse requires the time
and the energy of the participants.
The specious arguments of motivated
reasoning consume both.requires two resources: the time of the participants, and the energy of the participants. The specious arguments of motivated reasoning consume both of these resources. For example, most meetings have defined duration. Time is limited for the meeting and for its agenda items. Participant energy is also limited. Participants who want to attend to an evidence-based argument must share the time and energy resources with those who put forth arguments based on motivated reasoning. And when they do have the floor, they must spend some of their time dealing with the effects and distractions of motivated reasoning. Thus motivated reasoning both establishes specious conclusions and obstructs the establishment of more legitimate conclusions. Meetings can be extended, and deadlines relaxed, up to a point. But time lost to motivated reasoning is lost nevertheless.

All this would be enough to qualify motivated reasoning as one of the more destructive cognitive processes, but there is more. The most devious among us use motivated reasoning to deal with others who might be or might become clear-thinking opponents who might refute deceptive arguments. Using motivated reasoning, these devious individuals convert others into unwitting accomplices who then help to propagate deception.

In the context of motivated reasoning, some cognitive biases are more likely to arise than others. These biases include Attribute Substitution, Hindsight Bias, Confirmation Bias, Self-serving Bias, and the Pseudocertainty Effect. In the next post of this series, I'll discuss how Motivated Reasoning can increase our vulnerability to the Pseudocertainty Effect. First in this series  Next in this series  Top    Next Issue

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More articles on Cognitive Biases at Work:

Self-Serving Bias in Organizations

We all want to believe that we can rely on the good judgment of decision makers when they make decisions that affect organizational performance. But they're human, and they are therefore subject to a cognitive bias known as self-serving bias. Here's a look at what can happen.

Scope Creep, Hot Hands, and the Illusion of Control

Despite our awareness of scope creep's dangerous effects on projects and other efforts, we seem unable to prevent it. Two cognitive biases — the "hot hand fallacy" and "the illusion of control" — might provide explanations.

Scope Creep and Confirmation Bias

As we've seen, some cognitive biases can contribute to the incidence of scope creep in projects and other efforts. Confirmation bias, which causes us to prefer evidence that bolsters our preconceptions, is one of these.

Seven More Planning Pitfalls: I

Planners and members of planning teams are susceptible to patterns of thinking that lead to unworkable plans. But planning teams also suffer vulnerabilities. Two of these are Group Polarization and Trips to Abilene.

Risk Acceptance: One Path

When a project team decides to accept a risk, and when their project eventually experiences that risk, a natural question arises: What were they thinking? Cognitive biases, other psychological phenomena, and organizational dysfunction all can play roles.

See also Cognitive Biases at Work and Critical Thinking at Work for more related articles.

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And on May 1: Antipatterns for Time-Constrained Communication: 2

Recognizing just a few patterns that can lead to miscommunication can reduce the incidence of problems. Here is Part 2 of a collection of antipatterns that arise in technical communication under time pressure, emphasizing those that depend on content. Available here and by RSS on May 1.

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