Patterns of Conflict Escalation: II

In Part I of this exploration, we examined some behavioral patterns that escalate conflicts, including accusations and apologies. In this Part II, we turn our attention to patterns of thinking that lead us to make damaging errors when managing disagreements.

Sunk cost effect and sunk time effect

These two cognitive biases, and the "sacrifice trap," lead us to believe that rigidly adhering to our own positions in an ongoing disagreement is sensible. [Boulding 1990] The reasoning goes like this: "If I yield on this point, all my past work and sacrifices will be for naught." People who hold this belief feel that only total victory can justify the resources or time expended so far in establishing or defending their current positions. When this leads to increasing investment in the current position, this pattern is called escalation of commitment.

Resolving sincere disagreements usually requires all parties to take into account at least some of the interests of the others. That often entails letting go of some of our own past commitments. People ensnared in the sunk cost effect, the sunk time effect, or the sacrifice trap have great difficulty letting go. Moreover, these lines of thinking can lead their adherents along a path of indefinite escalation.

Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias (see "Confirmation Bias: Workplace Consequences: I," Point Lookout for November 23, 2011) is a cognitive bias that causes us to seek information confirming our preconceptions, while we avoid information that might contradict them. It can also cause us to overvalue information supporting our preconceptions, and undervalue information that conflicts with them.

This bias can obviously lead to conflict escalation when a party to the conflict interprets the statements or acts of other parties in ways that raise questions about their integrity. But more important, when confirmation bias becomes an ingredient of conspiracy theories, the conflict can widen to include other people not involved in the immediate conflict. Confirmation bias thus provides a means for toxic conflict to spread through the organization, contributing to factionalism and feuds.

Attribution bias

Attribution bias Resolving sincere disagreements
usually requires all parties to
take into account at least some
of the interests of the othersis a cognitive bias that affects the way we attribute causes for someone's behavior. In conflict, it can lead us to ascribe nefarious motives to people we dislike or distrust, while ascribing only the highest motives to ourselves or to people we like or trust. Even when the disfavored person behaves admirably or fairly, attribution bias can lead us to attribute that behavior to strategic deception, which justifies rejecting any constructive overtures by other parties to the conflict, rendering toxicity of the conflict inevitable, and making the toxicity more durable and intense.

Once one of the parties to a conflict begins ascribing negative motives to other parties to the conflict, conflict escalation is likely well underway. Delaying intervention until one is certain that things have turned sour is extremely risky.

These patterns are merely representative. There are more. I hope you're curious enough to explore further.   First issue in this series   Top    Next Issue

Are you fed up with tense, explosive meetings? Are you or a colleague the target of a bully? Destructive conflict can ruin organizations. But if we believe that all conflict is destructive, and that we can somehow eliminate conflict, or that conflict is an enemy of productivity, then we're in conflict with Conflict itself. Read 101 Tips for Managing Conflict to learn how to make peace with conflict and make it an organizational asset. Order Now!

Footnotes

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Coming May 14: Working with the Overconfident

A cognitive bias known as the Overconfidence Effect causes us to overestimate the reliability of our judgments. Decisions we make based on those judgments are therefore suspect. But there are steps we can take to make our confidence levels more realistic, and thus make our decisions more reliable. Available here and by RSS on May 14.

And on May 21: Mismanaging Project Managers

Most organizations hold project managers accountable for project performance. But they don't grant those project managers control of needed resources. Nor do they hold project sponsors or other senior managers accountable for the consequences of their actions when they interfere with project work. Here's a catalog of behaviors worth looking at. Available here and by RSS on May 21.

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