Point Lookout: a free weekly publication of Chaco Canyon Consulting
Volume 14, Issue 9;   February 26, 2014: Scope Creep, Hot Hands, and the Illusion of Control

Scope Creep, Hot Hands, and the Illusion of Control

by

Despite our awareness of scope creep's dangerous effects on projects and other efforts, we seem unable to prevent it. Two cognitive biases á#8212â the "hot hand fallacy" and "the illusion of control" á#8212â might provide explanations.
Gachi Fernandez and Sergio Cortazzo, professional tango couple

Gachi Fernandez and Sergio Cortazzo are one of Argentina's top young professional tango couples. They have toured the world, and they perform frequently in Buenos Aires. Tango may be unique among dances, because observing tango performed well can be a moving, dramatic experience. But it is far less dramatic when the dancers perform separately, which might explain the meaning of the expression, "It takes two to tango."

So it is with scope creep and cognitive biases. We can experience scope creep when only some people in the organization are in the grip of a cognitive bias. But when several people are so influenced, and when each one's cognitive bias mates well with the biases of others, scope creep can truly blossom. Photo by Marcela Carena, courtesy U.S. Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory.

The hot hand fallacy is the belief that we can better estimate the outcome of tests of skill if we weigh recent results more heavily than less recent results. It was first identified by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky in 1985. [Gilovich, et al., 1985] They found that the belief that basketball players can have "hot hands," leading to streaks of successful shooting, is without statistical foundation. That is, players do have "hot streaks" and "cold streaks," but the streaks that do happen are consistent with random chance.

Nevertheless, people do believe in the "hot hand," in basketball, and at work.

When someone has succeeded at a string of assignments, managers and executives tend to attribute that success, without proof, to the performer's innate capabilities. And the longer the string of successes, the more faith they have in the belief, even though every string of successes has a beginning, before which outcomes were less stellar.

When we believe someone has a "hot hand," we tend to ensure that he or she is fully occupied. Then, when a difficult challenge with a troubled history comes along, we sometimes try to fit it into whatever the hot-handed people are already doing. We add it to their responsibilities, hoping for yet another success. If it doesn't fit well, we make it fit. Voila! Scope creep.

But there's a little more to it. The people whom we regard as having a "hot hand" often regard themselves that way, too. They overestimate their capabilities, partly because of the hot hand fallacy, and perhaps partly due to another cognitive bias called the illusion of control. The illusion of control is our tendency to overestimate our ability to control events that are beyond our control.

For example, a project manager who completes a project successfully might not notice that she was able to retain all of her staff for the life of the project — no key people were suddenly reassigned to other projects. Scope creep often takes place
outside our awareness, due to
misjudgments arising from
cognitive biases
In many organizations, such a record is rare. But a project manager exulting in success might not notice this fortunate turn of events. Most project managers cannot control these "staff raids," but when they don't happen, the project runs more smoothly. Project managers then might tend to attribute the project's success to their own performance, neglecting to attribute any of it to good fortune. Project managers, or any managers, who attribute successes to their own performance, ignoring good fortune, might be in the grip of the illusion of control. And someone in that state is more likely to accept additional responsibilities when they're offered. Voila! Scope creep.

This example suggests that two people under the influence of different cognitive biases might produce collaborative misjudgments more erroneous than either of them acting independently, if their respective cognitive biases interoperate synergistically. Fascinating.  Scope Creep and the Planning Fallacy First issue in this series   Scope Creep and Confirmation Bias Next issue in this series  Go to top Top  Next issue: Changing Blaming Cultures  Next Issue

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More about scope creep

US Space Shuttle LaunchSome Causes of Scope Creep  [September 4, 2002]
When we suddenly realize that our project's scope has expanded far beyond its initial boundaries á#8212â when we have that how-did-we-ever-get-here feeling á#8212â we're experiencing the downside of scope creep. Preventing scope creep starts with understanding how it happens.

The spine of a human maleScopemonging: When Scope Creep Is Intentional  [August 22, 2007]
Scope creep is the tendency of some projects to expand their goals. Usually, we think of scope creep as an unintended consequence of a series of well-intentioned choices. But sometimes, it's much more than that.

Mars as seen by the Hubble TelescopeMore Indicators of Scopemonging  [August 29, 2007]
Scope creep á#8212â the tendency of some projects to expand their goals á#8212â is usually an unintended consequence of well-intentioned choices. But sometimes, it's part of a hidden agenda that some use to overcome budgetary and political obstacles.

President Harry S. Truman, and Gen. Douglas MacArthur, meeting at Wake Island, 14 October 1950The Perils of Political Praise  [May 19, 2010]
Political Praise is any public statement, praising (most often) an individual, and including a characterization of the individual or the individual's deeds, and which spins or distorts in such a way that it advances the praiser's own political agenda, possibly at the expense of the one praised.

An F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter test aircraft AA-1 undergoes flight testing over Fort Worth, TexasThe Deck Chairs of the ``Em''Titanic``/Em'': Task Duration  [June 22, 2011]
Much of what we call ``Em''work``/Em'' is as futile and irrelevant as rearranging the deck chairs of the ``Em''Titanic``/Em''. We continue our exploration of futile and irrelevant work, this time emphasizing behaviors that extend task duration.

Portrait of Benjamin Lincoln (1733-1810), Major General of the Continental Army during the American Revo|-|lu|-|tionary WarThe Deck Chairs of the ``Em''Titanic``/Em'': Strategy  [June 29, 2011]
Much of what we call ``Em''work``/Em'' is about as effective and relevant as rearranging the deck chairs of the ``Em''Titanic``/Em''. We continue our exploration of futile and irrelevant work, this time emphasizing behaviors related to strategy.

President Harry S. Truman, and Gen. Douglas MacArthur, meeting at Wake Island, 14 October 1950Ground Level Sources of Scope Creep  [July 18, 2012]
We usually think of scope creep as having been induced by managerial decisions. And most often, it probably is. But most project team members á#8212â and others as well á#8212â can contribute to the problem.

A visual illusionScope Creep and the Planning Fallacy  [February 19, 2014]
Much is known about scope creep, but it nevertheless occurs with such alarming frequency that in some organizations, it's a certainty. Perhaps what keeps us from controlling it better is that its causes can't be addressed with management methodology. Its causes might be, in part, psychological.

The Great Wall of China near MutianyuScope Creep and Confirmation Bias  [March 12, 2014]
As we've seen, some cognitive biases can contribute to the incidence of scope creep in projects and other efforts. Confirmation bias, which causes us to prefer evidence that bolsters our preconceptions, is one of these.

A fictional tornado striking ManhattanOn Planning in Plan-Hostile Environments: I  [April 23, 2025]
In most organizations, most of the time, the plans we make run into little obstacles. When that happens, we find workarounds. We adapt. We flex. We innovate. But there are times when whatever fix we try, in whatever way we replan, we just can't make it work. We're working in a plan-hostile environment.

Footnotes

Comprehensive list of all citations from all editions of Point Lookout
[Gilovich, et al., 1985]
Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky. "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences," Cognitive Psychology 17:3 (1985), pp. 295-314. Available here. Retrieved 28 April 2021. Back

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