Point Lookout: a free weekly publication of Chaco Canyon Consulting
Volume 16, Issue 27;   July 6, 2016: Cognitive Biases and Influence: I

Cognitive Biases and Influence: I

by

The techniques of influence include inadvertent — and not-so-inadvertent — uses of cognitive biases. They are one way we lead each other to accept or decide things that rationality cannot support.
An actual bandwagon in a circus parade

An actual bandwagon in the 2009 Great Circus Parade, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The idiom, "to jump on the bandwagon," first appeared in 1848 during Zachary Taylor's successful campaign for President of the United States. A popular clown of the era, Dan Rice, invited Taylor to ride on his circus bandwagon during a circus parade. The ploy was so successful that candidates in later campaigns also wanted to "jump on the bandwagon." [Sullivan 2009] Photo by Freekee courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

Cognitive biases affect how we acquire, interpret, and process information. When we make decisions, they cause systematic deviations from rationality. Although cognitive biases enable us to address issues more rapidly than we could using strict logic, they can cause us to make epically bad decisions. These properties make cognitive biases useful as tools of influence, especially when the goal of the influencer is not what others might regard as objectively justifiable on rational grounds.

Familiarity with this use of cognitive biases helps limit the incidence of abuses. Here's Part I of a catalog of influencing techniques that exploit cognitive biases.

Outcome Bias
The Outcome Bias is the tendency to evaluate a proposition based not on its general validity, but instead on a known outcome in one or more specific instances. For example, we might not adopt a particular technological solution if we believe that it failed in some previous application, even in the absence of a sound argument that the current proposal would yield analogous results.
To limit the effects of Outcome Bias, require that advocates restrict their arguments to the application at hand, without reference to past outcomes. If people want to use such data, require that they demonstrate applicability on strict logical grounds.
Cascade effects
Some cognitive biases belong to a grouping that can be called cascade effects, in which an idea propagates largely because members of a group observe its adoption by other members of the group. Two of these phenomena are the Availability Cascade and the Bandwagon Effect. Groupthink, the Abilene Paradox, and Peer Pressure can also be understood in terms of cascade effects. Influencers who wish to exploit cascade effects might seek to influence "thought leaders" first, and then use their endorsements to persuade others.
To determine Familiarity with the use of
cognitive biases as tools of
influence helps limit the
incidence of abuses
whether cascade effects are in play, track the sequence of conversions among adopters of the advocated proposition. If the early adopters are thought leaders, but are not the authors of the proposition, it's possible that the authors are employing cascade effects.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is the tendency to err in assessing either our own competence, or the competence of others. [Kruger & Dunning 1999] The more expert we are, the greater is our awareness of our own limitations; the less expert we are, the more likely we are to rely on our assessment of others' demeanor as a proxy for competence. For example, if people seem to lack confidence, we tend to question their competence. And the more complete is our grasp of a complex situation, the less confident we tend to appear when we express ourselves about it.
People who consciously exploit this effect might tend to project extreme confidence when they engage in discussions. They know that confidence makes their arguments seem more valid.

We'll continue next time with Part II of this catalog.  Cognitive Biases and Influence: II Next issue in this series  Go to top Top  Next issue: Cognitive Biases and Influence: II  Next Issue

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More about the Dunning-Kruger Effect

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin (left) with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan GreenspanThe Paradox of Confidence  [January 7, 2009]
Most of us interpret a confident manner as evidence of competence, and a hesitant manner as evidence of lesser ability. Recent research suggests that confidence and competence are inversely correlated. If so, our assessments of credibility and competence are thrown into question.

Space Shuttle Columbia during the launch of its final missionHow to Reject Expert Opinion: II  [January 4, 2012]
When groups of decision makers confront complex problems, and they receive opinions from recognized experts, those opinions sometimes conflict with the group's own preferences. What tactics do groups use to reject the opinions of people with relevant expertise?

Allied leaders at the Yalta Conference in February, 1945Devious Political Tactics: More from the Field Manual  [August 29, 2012]
Careful observation of workplace politics reveals an assortment of devious tactics that the ruthless use to gain advantage. Here are some of their techniques, with suggestions for effective responses.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, and President Bush in a press conference on September 17, 2001Overconfidence at Work  [April 15, 2015]
Confidence in our judgments and ourselves is essential to success. Confidence misplaced — overconfidence — leads to trouble and failure. Understanding the causes and consequences of overconfidence can be most useful.

The U.S. F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighter lifts off for its first training sortie March 6, 2012, at Eglin Air Force Base, FloridaWishful Thinking and Perception: II  [November 4, 2015]
Continuing our exploration of causes of wishful thinking and what we can do about it, here's Part II of a little catalog of ways our preferences and wishes affect our perceptions.

Louis Pasteur in 1885Wishful Significance: II  [December 23, 2015]
When we're beset by seemingly unresolvable problems, we sometimes conclude that "wishful thinking" was the cause. Wishful thinking can result from errors in assessing the significance of our observations. Here's a second group of causes of erroneous assessment of significance.

Donald Trump (left) and Hillary Clinton (right), candidates for U.S. President in 2016The Paradox of Carefully Chosen Words  [November 16, 2016]
When we take special care in choosing our words, so as to avoid creating misimpressions, something strange often happens: we create a misimpression of ignorance or deceitfulness. Why does this happen?

Braided streams in Grewingk Glacier RiverRisk Acceptance: One Path  [March 3, 2021]
When a project team decides to accept a risk, and when their project eventually experiences that risk, a natural question arises: What were they thinking? Cognitive biases, other psychological phenomena, and organizational dysfunction all can play roles.

Cassandra, from a painting by Evelyn De Morgan (1855-1919)Cassandra at Work  [April 13, 2022]
When a team makes a wrong choice, and only a tiny minority advocated for what turned out to have been the right choice, trouble can arise when the error at last becomes evident. Maintaining team cohesion can be a difficult challenge for team leaders.

XP-80 prototype Lulu-Belle on the groundEmbedded Technology Groups and the Dunning-Kruger Effect  [March 12, 2025]
Groups of technical specialists in fields that differ markedly from the main business of the enterprise that hosts them must sometimes deal with wrong-headed decisions made by people who think they know more about the technology than they actually do.

Footnotes

Comprehensive list of all citations from all editions of Point Lookout
[Sullivan 2009]
Larry E. Sullivan. The SAGE glossary of the social and behavioral sciences. Sage, 2009. Back
[Kruger & Dunning 1999]
Justin Kruger and David Dunning. "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77:6 (1999), pp. 1121-1134. Available here. Retrieved 17 December 2008. Back

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